The Quality of Decision Making

by May 28, 20082 comments

Rushworth Kidder, whose thoughts and writings are always insightful, has recently completed a small pilot survey of members of the Institute for Global Ethics, of which he is the executive Director. The question: What is the most threatening global issue facing humanity today?

Is it terrorism, violence against women, CO2 emissions, governmental corruption, mass migration, water scarcity, or slavery?

Since the questions in the survey were based on the 15 major issues catalogued in the 2007 “State of the Future” report from the United Nations-affiliated Millennium Project, Kidder’s team asked one of the report’s co-authors, Theodore J. Gordon, to join a follow-up conference call with the survey participants. Gordon conceived of the Millennium Project in the 1980s and remains one of the world’s most highly respected futurists. He’s been studying future issues and trends since well before 1971, when he founded his own consulting firm, The Futures Group. So his answer was surprising.

Of the nine topics in the survey, respondents clustered three of them near the top: terrorism, CO2 emissions, and mass migration. They followed with a group of five more: corruption; violence against women; global slavery; disease, AIDS, and pandemics; and imbalanced wealth distribution. The ninth issue, shortage of medical professionals, came in well below the rest.

But Gordon said it’s none of the above. He said, “If you look at all of these issues,” he said “and ask what’s common to them all, its lousy decision making.”

“There used to be a time,” Gordon continued, “when I thought futures research, my field, would make its contribution by improving decision making. But I’ve abandoned that thought. We could have the best insight into what the future might be†through magic techniques not yet invented†and decisions would still be terrible!” Translation: It’s not the specific issues that challenge us, but the way we fail to deal with issues of every sort.

Kidder writes, “That strikes me as a remarkable admission for a man whose life has been devoted to advancing and promoting futures research. Gordon wouldn’t want me to hold him up to unfair comparisons, but if Einstein after decades of work had told us that something mattered more than physics, or if Cezanne had concluded that painting wasn’t what it was all about, or if Darwin had intimated that he was outgrowing his commitment to evolution, wouldn’t we pay attention?”

I find in the organizations that I work for that there is a general weakness in the crispness and discipline of decision making. Too often, it is a disorganized process which relies more on positional power, ego and forces that psychologists call “the shadow” the personal foibles and demons that we all possess.

It’s not that the big issues are not important, but as long as we lack the will and the training to make high quality decisions, rooted in integrity, that are in the best long-term interests of our constituents, we will lurch from one crisis to another and be forever searching for a better decision than the last one.